El Niño Fading

by Mark Murray

Posted on April 9, 2010 at 9:50 PM

Our current El Nino is 10 months old and is showing signs of fading.  El Nino reached its peak in late December, when water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean were running about 1.8 degrees C above average.  Temperatures that warm help to shift weather patterns across the planet.  For Texas, it meant above normal rainfall from late fall through the winter.  This week, temperatures in that same region are running only about 1.0 degree C above average...considered a "moderate" El  Nino.  That, combined with the fact that the later into spring we get, the less of an impact El Nino has on Central Texas, means that I expect just slightly above average precipitation in April, with temperatures near normal, or just slightly below normal.  By May, look for Austin's weather to be about average.  Luckily, May is our wettest month of the year, so there's still some hope of filling up Lake Buchanan.  Buchanan's low level (73% full as of 4/9) is one of the last remaining signs of last year's drought.  I believe that we're in for a typical Austin summer...warm and dry...but, not as hot as last year when we had 68 days of triple-digit heat!! 

Some long range models hint that a weak La Nina may return late this year.  La Nina was responsible for our record-breaking drought.  But, that's far from certain, as climate models have some trouble determining the onset of a La Nina.  

You can read all about the latest El Nino and La Nina forecast here.