The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in Arabian Sea

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm-PHET is brewing. Here is the JTWC REMARKS.021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM EYE. A MID- LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ONTO THE COAST OF OMAN BY TAU 36, WHERE IT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED. TC PHET SHOULD THEN ENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF PAKISTAN BY TAU 96. TC PHET WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE FASTER RECURVERS (UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR) AND THOSE THAT ARE SLOWER (GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS), TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OMAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH A SLOWER RECURVE TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS SLOWER TO RECURVE AND IS SIMILAR TO MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING TC 03A OVER OMAN AND WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//